Article-Journal

We create the first high-resolution estimate of artisanal mining’s spatial footprint across sub-Saharan Africa using machine learning, finding it impacts far more ecosystems and populations than previously understood.

Interest-based negotiation training for community leaders in Liberia improves ability to reach beneficial agreements by 27% and increases total surplus by 42%, while reducing exploitation of communal forestland.

This study challenges conventional conflict theories by demonstrating that armed groups in Africa primarily target oil pipelines rather than more valuable oil terminals or wells. Combining crisis bargaining and Blotto game theory, the authors show that attackers strategically avoid heavily fortified high-value targets and instead randomize pipeline attacks to steal oil and signal strength, providing rare empirical validation of Blotto models in conflict studies.

Budget fluctuations shape autocrats’ decisions to include or exclude rivals from ruling coalitions. While exclusion is costly during tight budgets, it can improve long-term survival by reducing patronage obligations. Budget upswings promote more inclusive ruling coalitions.

This study resolves mixed findings on conflict’s impact on investment by examining how geographic proximity to violence affects mining firms’ behavior. Using novel data, the authors find that firms respond differently based on their exposure: those at conflict sites reduce investment dramatically, those in surrounding areas increase investment, while those far from violence show slight decreases. These nuanced responses are obscured in aggregate investment data.

Our six-country randomized trial shows that externally initiated community monitoring can successfully reduce common pool resource use and increase user satisfaction and knowledge, providing generalizable evidence for improving resource management.

This study evaluates a citizen monitoring program in 60 rural Liberian communities, finding that it increased community members’ information and participation in forest governance, while strengthening accountability of local leaders. Although the intervention did not reduce deforestation—as households did not prioritize conservation—the authors suggest citizen monitoring could improve equity in future conservation payment schemes.

Our meta-analysis of 46 natural experiments shows commodity price changes don’t affect conflict likelihood overall, but reveals important differences by commodity type: agricultural price increases reduce conflict, while oil and artisanal mineral price increases provoke it.

Mining investments double the likelihood of protests in Africa but don’t increase armed conflict. These disputes intensify with rising commodity prices and stem from incomplete information between stakeholders.

This article examines how Myanmar’s military strategically escalated violence in jade-mining areas during democratic transition to maintain economic control. Using geocoded conflict and mine data, the authors demonstrate that military-instigated conflicts increased sharply in these regions after 2011, suggesting that outgoing regimes may exploit instability to retain valuable resources during democratization.